Monday, October 17, 2005

Russia's Dilemna in 2020 is China's opportunity

What do you get with a country of only 16 million people in its eastern section that contains 80% of it's resources there bordered by a country of over 1.3 Billion, male dominated people that is resource poor looking for more resources?

You've got the world's next superpower in China.

Russia is yesterday's superpower, the United States is today's only superpower and China will be tomorrow's world power.

With Russia'a staggering decline in population and strength, you have a border situation that is far more pourous than that of USA's and Mexico's, this could lead to China making inroads into eastern Russia. The illegal immigration is reportedly out of control, with over 200,000 Chinese living and working in eastern Russia. Russia needs to protect itself, but lacks money, etc to enforce.

So what does Russia do with China?

These two countries signed the Sino-Russia Good Neighborly Treaty in 2001 that calls for the 2 countries to work in tandem for economic growth and to challenge American international position and influence. On paper, it looks great for both sides, but not for the good guys.....the USA. This treaty comes up for final resolution in 2020, at this time, China will be far more powerful and licking its chops for the goods in eastern Russia. Meanwhile, Russia will limp along. It is estimated (I took this from the Christian Science Monitor, dated April 18, 2002....I can't link it, don't know why) that Russia's current population of 145 million could be cut in half within 50 years. Male life expectancy is 59 and female life expectancy is 72, births stand at 1.1 per woman, far short of the 2.4 needed to stabilize the population and more abortions than births. Now look at China, since they instituted the "one child only" in the late 1970's, they have a population of 119 boys to every 100 girls, that's a disproportionate of 20%!

You've got a few things going on here, either the world's first gay superpower will come to rise, or or a bunch of coming of age testosterone crazed men with a taste of capitalism looking for something to conquer..........maybe something like a .......a ......jihad?.....Chinese style.

5 Comments:

At 12:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"testosterone crazed men with a taste of capitalism"....huh?........I thought China was a communist country, article doesn't hold weight

 
At 12:55 PM, Blogger Joe Gringo said...

Capitalism is alive and well in China....believe me. Our firm was the first American firm in our industry there, since 1992. Amazing things are happening in China, google Shanghai, do some research.

It's possible they may not contain/sustain their growth, we need to stay ahead of the game on this one!

 
At 1:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

thanks for the eye-opener and great closing line!

 
At 4:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Joe Gringo- I enjoyed your info I am adding you to my favorites!!!!! Nean

 
At 7:33 AM, Blogger Joe Gringo said...

thanks big neaner!!!

 

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